Yesterday the Chinese government announced it would spend nearly 600 billion USD in stimulus efforts. Morgan Stanley's Qing Wang and Steven Zhang gave us a heads up that this was coming here. They expected the announcement of a proactive stimulus policy to be made at the end of the month. Not only was it made earlier, but prior to the announcement, Chinese finance minister Xie Xuren was called back from Peru under what seem to be emergency circumstances. One partial explanation for the timing of the announcement is to frame the Chinese leadership in the best possible light heading into this Friday's G20 summit.
I think it's more likely that the Chinese government just caught on to the extent to which economic conditions have deteriorated domestically and realized they had to do something immediately. The amount to be spent is far larger than Zhang and Wang had anticipated although the announcement has been criticized for including infrastructure projects and earthquake recovery funds which were already to be spent. It had the effect of boosting Asian markets on Monday. Tokyo's benchmark stock index rose 5.8%, Shanghai's 7.3% and Hong Kong's 3.5%. The Yen also depreciated some which is interpreted to mean some are willing to make large investments financed by Japanese lenders.
I doubt these rallies will last as I don't think the markets had fully priced in the information that has spurred the Chinese government to action. Over the next few weeks, I think we'll see ever more stunning drops in exports and retail sales, rising unemployment and bankruptcies, and ultimately social unrest.
From Plastic News China; The twice-yearly China Import and Export Fair in Guangzhou is an important barometer of China's exports. The most recent fair, held earlier this month, witnessed a 10 percent drop in trade volume. According to the Xinhua Agency, orders from the U.S. posted the biggest decline: more than 30 percent from last year.
From the China law blog:The downturn in shipping is having a profoundly negative effect on all segments of China's maritime industry. Shipbuilders are finding that their shipbuilding contracts are being extensively breached. Since shipbuilders in China are mostly new companies, they are heavily in debt. These breaches threaten the life of the entire shipbuilding industry in China."
The Baltic Dry Index can be used as a stand-in for the amount of shipping occurring. From the chart you can see demand for exports has nosedived in the past few months.
Conditions have deteriorated so quickly that power generation in China actually fell in October:
'With more than 70 percent of electricity consumed by industrial users, economists track the power figures for an insight into the health of the manufacturing sector.
Sure enough, factories have moved down a gear in recent months, and economists polled by Reuters expect figures on Nov. 13 to show that industrial production growth slowed to a six-year low of 11.3 percent in the year to October.'
In a desperate attempt to avoid "mass incidents", local governments are stepping in to pay some of the wages owed by failed companies. From this chilling Washington Post article:
In the city of Dongguan, the local government handed out about $3.5 million on Oct. 21 to the employees of Smart Union -- which sold its toys to Mattel, Disney and Hasbro -- after the 7,000 workers staged a strike.
Hu Weicai, 38, who worked with the plastic molds used to make electronic toys, said employees became nervous when the owners slipped three months behind on salary payments. The workers occupied the factory and the surrounding streets until government officials promised them they would be paid.
"The government was very afraid when they saw what was happening. What the government fears most is workers making trouble. They paid us to stabilize our moods," Hu said. Indeed, signs posted at the gates of closed factories did not direct former workers to places where they could get help, but instead displayed a warning. In large black characters, they reminded workers that they could be detained for stirring up unrest, for disobeying security officials or even for 'unlawful gathering.'
The Chinese government cannot create demand which has suddenly disappeared. Furthermore, the current downturn is only a triggering event for the much larger correction which China would inevitably face, which is not dependent on external events, and which will be greatly exacerbated by China's own property market bubble bursting.
The Chinese consumer cannot save us. (But maybe the Japanese consumer can.)
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Monday, September 29, 2008
McCain got bad beat and hes short stacked, Time to pick a spot and push.
Not to be stuck in total denial of reality, if you squint at it there is a way that John McCain's comeback is inevitable and Republicans can fend off total slaughter come November. Assumption #1 congress has to pass a bailout plan. Assumption #2 In order to pass that bailout plan McCain has to play an integral part. Assumption #3 The McCain campaign realizes that their only chance of winning the election is to be seen playing a central role in brokering a successful bailout package. Assumption #4 possibly the white house also realizes that they need to let McCain broker the deal if they are to get a deal. (and, again, there will be a deal cuz there has to be.)
This is the exact sort of big issue, capitol gridlock situation that McCain has used to establish himself as a maverick by bucking Republican orthodoxy to achieve a bipartisan solution that just about nobody is happy with. (But its still better than the status quo!)
Having passed the bailout, the elimination of most worst-case scenarios will cause an immediate improvement in the market and the economy although the ripple effects of whats going on right now will be present through election day.
Not saying this will actually happen, just saying that if it does people will say that it was some amazing turn around but in reality it was inevitable and predictable with the proper model.
The scale of events these days is enough to make a US presidential election seem trivial. As such its a good time to mention some other inevitabilities. It is inevitable that the US will adopt appropriate fiscal and monetary strategies to cope with this economic situation. Its impossible that political leaders who are unwilling to act correctly according to economic theory will not gain power. They (collectively) know the theory. The theory is correct. It is also impossible that self interested actors would not choose to adopt correct strategy if they can, considering the advantage correct strategy would give them over their political opposition. (Correct as in avoiding disaster, although there is a lot of room for sub-optimal strategy.)
This will certainly be a period of increased concentration of industry in the hands of government, and possibly increased protectionism. However, the inevitable result will be the adoption of consumption increasing policies by the governments of the G8 ex-US plus China. These countries will all be forced both by politics (the US twisting arms) and economic circumstances to undergo reform. In the end they are too dependent on the US as an export partner to not give in to US demands and US demands will be increased consumption on their part which will ultimately free them from dependency on the US as an export market.
People who think that China is going to own the US and UK financial system need to realize that our financial problems are merely a precursor to their much more serious problems which will require an international bailout as they don't have the technical sophistication to engineer it for themselves. Therefore, the reverse,(China selling of large chunks of equity at in their banking sector at firesale prices to Western firms) is more likely.
Of course, I am probably wrong about all this, there are so many more ways to be wrong than to be right. The goal is to develop strategies to make a profit when you are right and break even the rest of the time.
This is the exact sort of big issue, capitol gridlock situation that McCain has used to establish himself as a maverick by bucking Republican orthodoxy to achieve a bipartisan solution that just about nobody is happy with. (But its still better than the status quo!)
Having passed the bailout, the elimination of most worst-case scenarios will cause an immediate improvement in the market and the economy although the ripple effects of whats going on right now will be present through election day.
Not saying this will actually happen, just saying that if it does people will say that it was some amazing turn around but in reality it was inevitable and predictable with the proper model.
The scale of events these days is enough to make a US presidential election seem trivial. As such its a good time to mention some other inevitabilities. It is inevitable that the US will adopt appropriate fiscal and monetary strategies to cope with this economic situation. Its impossible that political leaders who are unwilling to act correctly according to economic theory will not gain power. They (collectively) know the theory. The theory is correct. It is also impossible that self interested actors would not choose to adopt correct strategy if they can, considering the advantage correct strategy would give them over their political opposition. (Correct as in avoiding disaster, although there is a lot of room for sub-optimal strategy.)
This will certainly be a period of increased concentration of industry in the hands of government, and possibly increased protectionism. However, the inevitable result will be the adoption of consumption increasing policies by the governments of the G8 ex-US plus China. These countries will all be forced both by politics (the US twisting arms) and economic circumstances to undergo reform. In the end they are too dependent on the US as an export partner to not give in to US demands and US demands will be increased consumption on their part which will ultimately free them from dependency on the US as an export market.
People who think that China is going to own the US and UK financial system need to realize that our financial problems are merely a precursor to their much more serious problems which will require an international bailout as they don't have the technical sophistication to engineer it for themselves. Therefore, the reverse,(China selling of large chunks of equity at in their banking sector at firesale prices to Western firms) is more likely.
Of course, I am probably wrong about all this, there are so many more ways to be wrong than to be right. The goal is to develop strategies to make a profit when you are right and break even the rest of the time.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
More Free Money on Intrade
Someone is trying to manipulate the markets on Intrade. That means free money for anyone that buys an Obama contract. Sell in exactly 3 weeks for guaranteed profit. Or if you feel the need to make a larger gamble and you think Obama will win, you'll get your best price now so buy and hold till expiration.
Mccains only chance at this point is a. the general consensus is that the financial system is stable to the point that we can get back to more trivial issues. 2. Jeremiah Wright round two hits harder than anticipated and Coloradans actually care.
Mccains only chance at this point is a. the general consensus is that the financial system is stable to the point that we can get back to more trivial issues. 2. Jeremiah Wright round two hits harder than anticipated and Coloradans actually care.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
DEM.VP
Regarding the DEM.VP intrade markets, we can now take a look and see how they performed. Of interest: market efficiency, their prediction accuracy, and reaction to Biden's headfake (8/19).
Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.
Clearly there was a reaction to Biden's headfake. His price had been surging and suddenly dropped for 2 days. Kaine and Bayh's prices both increased after Biden said he was 'not the guy' (What a Dbag!) It might be more significant that it didn't decrease more as it would indicate some traders knew Biden was the pick, or possibly just knew Biden is moronic enough to pointlessly deny something that would be announced in two days. It also may have been decreasing slowly due to market inefficiency. (Including some traders not getting word of Biden's statement.)
Here's a trade by trade graph starting hours before the announcement.
Interesting how it jumped to 90 and then fell back to 70 before climbing to where its at. Were some people just cashing in causing the price to drop? Did some traders know for sure but the speculators pushed the price back down? Did news reports give mixed signals?
Interestingly, unlike the other two candidates, Kaine's largest day of trading volume occurred on the 21st. Amid the swirl of speculation over the past week is was difficult to determine which new information mattered and I think I discounted some quote from Kaine on the 21st, but it was obviously a market mover.
Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.
This is the last 48 hours of Bayh trading (ending at 3pm 8/23) ie. it gives insight into just what took place within that frenzied volume of trading shown in the final two days of the first graph. It wasn't all straight down. Specifically, something happened around 6pm on Friday that seems to have convinced a lot of people that Bayh was the pick. That topped out at 50 before the price basically nose-dived to 0. (When exactly did official word of the pick go out? Was it Friday evening as this graph would suggest? What time did news break of the Obama-Bayh yard sign?)
According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)
Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.
Clearly there was a reaction to Biden's headfake. His price had been surging and suddenly dropped for 2 days. Kaine and Bayh's prices both increased after Biden said he was 'not the guy' (What a Dbag!) It might be more significant that it didn't decrease more as it would indicate some traders knew Biden was the pick, or possibly just knew Biden is moronic enough to pointlessly deny something that would be announced in two days. It also may have been decreasing slowly due to market inefficiency. (Including some traders not getting word of Biden's statement.)
Here's a trade by trade graph starting hours before the announcement.
Interesting how it jumped to 90 and then fell back to 70 before climbing to where its at. Were some people just cashing in causing the price to drop? Did some traders know for sure but the speculators pushed the price back down? Did news reports give mixed signals?
Interestingly, unlike the other two candidates, Kaine's largest day of trading volume occurred on the 21st. Amid the swirl of speculation over the past week is was difficult to determine which new information mattered and I think I discounted some quote from Kaine on the 21st, but it was obviously a market mover.
Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.
This is the last 48 hours of Bayh trading (ending at 3pm 8/23) ie. it gives insight into just what took place within that frenzied volume of trading shown in the final two days of the first graph. It wasn't all straight down. Specifically, something happened around 6pm on Friday that seems to have convinced a lot of people that Bayh was the pick. That topped out at 50 before the price basically nose-dived to 0. (When exactly did official word of the pick go out? Was it Friday evening as this graph would suggest? What time did news break of the Obama-Bayh yard sign?)
According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)
LMAO@Obama-Biden
There is a reason nobody took Biden's presidential campaign seriously in the first place. Biden is not appropriate for national television. His total inability to shut his mouth is a character flaw. His Jefferson Jackson dinner speech in Iowa was literally the worst speech I have ever heard in my entire life. (And I have attended English language Toastmasters meetings in Beijing). When he starts talking too much during Cspan coverage of congressional hearings, I can turn it off or skip forward 20 minutes, but there in Iowa I could do nothing but count his attempts to invoke an aura of weightiness by saying "ladies and gentlemen" over and over and over. Sure one could argue that Biden's policy stances contradict what Obama claims to stand for. Or that these policy stances are flawed. Or mention his plagiarism in 1988. But if I was Steve Schmidt or Rick Davis, I might just say nothing. Attacking Biden gives him an undeserved credibility, evidencing a concern that without the attacks people might not see through his rhetoric for what he really is. There need not be such concern with Biden. Just let him introduce himself to the American public in the way that he sees best fit. That will surely be off-putting enough for the majority of Americans.
Dems should be crying. They could have Clinton-Obama. Instead they have Obama-Biden. LMAO.
As for McCain, I'm assuming that both Rice and Petreus, for whatever reasons, are not actually choosable. I'm hoping for Pawlenty and if it's Romney I will be rather disappointed.
Dems should be crying. They could have Clinton-Obama. Instead they have Obama-Biden. LMAO.
As for McCain, I'm assuming that both Rice and Petreus, for whatever reasons, are not actually choosable. I'm hoping for Pawlenty and if it's Romney I will be rather disappointed.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Ohio polls and price movement
A new PPP poll shows Obama and McCain tied in Ohio. The previous PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 8 points. Rasmussen will most likely be the next to release an Ohio poll. Their previous release had McCain ahead by 10 points and prior to that two months of McCain leading by 1. It seems possible that PPP set up Ohio to shift from lean Obama to lean McCain and Rasmussen might push it over the edge. In other words look for the Rasmussen report to move Ohio.Rep higher.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Week in Review 8/9-8/16
Examining the graphs from the past week, three battleground states showed significant movement for McCain between the 15th-16th (Friday-Saturday).
Poll releases seem to tell the story:
Sat. 8/16
| Rocky Mtn News/CBS4 | 08/11 - 08/13 | 500 RV | 41 | 44 | McCain +3 |
Fri. 8/15
Looking further back, it's apparent the CO price has been following the polls. Obama reached a high of 75 prior to the release of the first poll in which McCain lead on 7/22. From that point it has been a steady decline with the exception of a short uptick on 8/8 when the PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 4.
McCain now leads in the CO polls but trails on Intrade. (Small lead according to RCP, dead even according to pollster.com, slightly behind according to 538 which weights the Rocky Mnt News poll at .75) Are the markets pricing in the anticipated effects of the DNC convention?
As for Nevada and Florida, they both had recent poll releases that favored McCain. The date on 538 is 8/11. Polls tend to carry the dates they were conducted rather than released whereas the latter date is more useful for my purposes.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Highlights of Saturday's Rasmussen Poll Release
"McCain is now trusted more than Obama on nine out of 14 electoral issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But perhaps the most interesting finding of this survey is that McCain has expanded his leads on nearly every issue he had previously had the advantage on, while Obama’s leads have diminished over the past two weeks."
"During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell to 39.2% while the number of self-identified Republicans stayed at 31.6%. LINK It was the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%."
"Television is the news source of choice for most Americans for information on the 2008 presidential campaign, with local stations having a slight edge over their cable competitors."
"In a separate survey last month, 49% of voters believed that most reporters are trying to help Democratic candidate Barack Obama win the presidency. Only 14% thought they are trying to help Republican John McCain win. Just one voter in four (24%) said most reporters are trying to be unbiased."
Special Note: Marc Ambinder has broadsided Dick Morris and come out strongly against Obama under performing amongst older white women and in favor of McCain under performing amongst white men.
"During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell to 39.2% while the number of self-identified Republicans stayed at 31.6%. LINK It was the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%."
"Television is the news source of choice for most Americans for information on the 2008 presidential campaign, with local stations having a slight edge over their cable competitors."
"In a separate survey last month, 49% of voters believed that most reporters are trying to help Democratic candidate Barack Obama win the presidency. Only 14% thought they are trying to help Republican John McCain win. Just one voter in four (24%) said most reporters are trying to be unbiased."
Special Note: Marc Ambinder has broadsided Dick Morris and come out strongly against Obama under performing amongst older white women and in favor of McCain under performing amongst white men.
The August 5th event
So what happened on August 5th that caused the market for every battleground state to spike for McCain? Surprisingly, the answer is not entirely obvious. All things considered, the best I can come up with is this: "McCain makes a last-minute purchase of $6 million in Olympics ad time, topping Obama’s $5 million buy." (From thepage)In addition, Rasmussen and Zogby released polls on 8/4 in which McCain lead.
Which of these is the real market driver is a significant question for determining just how political prediction markets are going to work. Are the prices driven by those with a deeper understanding of the process, or are they merely a lagging indicator of recent poll results?
Which of these is the real market driver is a significant question for determining just how political prediction markets are going to work. Are the prices driven by those with a deeper understanding of the process, or are they merely a lagging indicator of recent poll results?
中国加油！
I'll be rooting for the Chinese to pull out their hoped for domination of all medals in the Olympics. I'm not particularly eager to see the Chinese system of athlete recruitment and training succeed and I have over the past four years felt the occasional surge of nationalistic pride along the lines of 'god I hope we beat these bastards' but it would be best for the world if they win (the most medals). A Chinese win might go a long way towards defusing the national inferiority complex. Having proven the power of the Chinese on the world stage they may feel slightly less driven to do that in other realms. On the flip side, I hope a Chinese win fuels Western anxiety about China's rise and our ability to guide/contain it. Such anxiety could only be beneficial to the physical security of one living in Taiwan and the job opportunities of one looking to analyze Sino-US relations.
Week in Review
RCP poll avgs on 8/2
Obama 46.5
McCain 43.9
RCP poll avgs on 8/8
Obama 46.9
McCain 43.3
McCain Intrade
Obama Intrade
Ohio
Republicans:
Democrats:
The most significant event of the week happened on August 5th. Almost every battleground state price shows a sharp increase for McCain on the 5th followed by steady erosion of the increase over the rest of the week. New Mexico and Nevada, where the increase disappears entirely, and Indiana, where the increase is maintained, break the pattern. Michigan also had a Pro-McCain reaction on the 5th but lost that and more by the end of the week.
Obama 46.5
McCain 43.9
RCP poll avgs on 8/8
Obama 46.9
McCain 43.3
McCain Intrade
Obama Intrade
Ohio
Republicans:
Democrats:
The most significant event of the week happened on August 5th. Almost every battleground state price shows a sharp increase for McCain on the 5th followed by steady erosion of the increase over the rest of the week. New Mexico and Nevada, where the increase disappears entirely, and Indiana, where the increase is maintained, break the pattern. Michigan also had a Pro-McCain reaction on the 5th but lost that and more by the end of the week.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
More "who is Obama" blather
I think Barack's flexibility on energy has helped him out in the polls already. Here's a few points you can take out of his poll numbers right now to get ahead of the game:
"His rapid rise benefited ironically from his ability to "transcend race," we have been told repeatedly. That's another way of saying that he seemed to offer Americans a way to reduce race to something that would not matter anymore. Americans want to believe that race doesn't matter and apparently we will only believe it if we hear a black person say it."
Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune
Contrast that with the Kurtz's Barack Obama's Lost Years in The Weekly Standard.
"Indeed, race functions for Obama as a kind of master-category, pervading and organizing a wide array of issues that many Americans may not think of as racial at all. Understanding Obama's thinking on race, for example, is a prerequisite to grasping his views on spending and taxation."
Status update: Obama still had a radical left-wing pastor who preached for 20 years and this has yet to be re-introduced as a general election issue.
Does Obama think white supremacy is the organizing principle of the USA? (As Wright does.)
Does Obama think 9/11 was an inside job? (As Wright does.)
"His rapid rise benefited ironically from his ability to "transcend race," we have been told repeatedly. That's another way of saying that he seemed to offer Americans a way to reduce race to something that would not matter anymore. Americans want to believe that race doesn't matter and apparently we will only believe it if we hear a black person say it."
Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune
Contrast that with the Kurtz's Barack Obama's Lost Years in The Weekly Standard.
"Indeed, race functions for Obama as a kind of master-category, pervading and organizing a wide array of issues that many Americans may not think of as racial at all. Understanding Obama's thinking on race, for example, is a prerequisite to grasping his views on spending and taxation."
Status update: Obama still had a radical left-wing pastor who preached for 20 years and this has yet to be re-introduced as a general election issue.
Does Obama think white supremacy is the organizing principle of the USA? (As Wright does.)
Does Obama think 9/11 was an inside job? (As Wright does.)
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Due Credit and Caution
Now that McCain has moved to 39 on intrade and Obama to 58, the millions of you who regularly read this blog and follow its suggestions have made tons of cash. Good job. Now be careful over the next two weeks. The current narrative --the race is ugly and the race is tied -- might yield to the realization that a tie goes to Obama. I assume it has been the changed poll numbers which have driven the market. If the changes in the polls stall out at even, people will realize that all Obama has to do is win one swing state and hold all of Kerry's states. The market will then shift back toward Obama even as the polls stay put. On the other hand, it goes without saying that if a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan looks to lean-McCain, the McCain upside is like 25. (But I don't see that happening.)
Super Ugly Obama Rumors
Advance Indiana, which previously posted a youtube clip of the Ludacris song about Obama, has recently posted two rumors which threaten to become major MSM driving scandals, or just powerful whisper/blogging campaigns. 1. Obama received illegal campaign contributions from Palestinians. 2.Obama's birth certificate is forged.
"Piecing together facts in the public domain, the investigative journalist was able to surmise that Sen. Obama's step father had adopted him and his name had been legally changed from Barack Hussein Obama to Barry Soetoro. When an adoption occurs, the child's birth certificate is re-issued with the name of the adoptive parent and the original birth certificate ceases to exist. Records of the adoption are sealed. The investigative reporting at Texas Darlin concludes this is the reason Obama's campaign is using a fake certificate of live birth to prove his natural born status. Indonesian records indicate that Barry Soetoro was an Indonesian citizen identified in his public school records as being a Muslim, the religion of his adopted father. It is unclear if and when Obama had his name legally changed back to Barack Hussein Obama, II."
"Piecing together facts in the public domain, the investigative journalist was able to surmise that Sen. Obama's step father had adopted him and his name had been legally changed from Barack Hussein Obama to Barry Soetoro. When an adoption occurs, the child's birth certificate is re-issued with the name of the adoptive parent and the original birth certificate ceases to exist. Records of the adoption are sealed. The investigative reporting at Texas Darlin concludes this is the reason Obama's campaign is using a fake certificate of live birth to prove his natural born status. Indonesian records indicate that Barry Soetoro was an Indonesian citizen identified in his public school records as being a Muslim, the religion of his adopted father. It is unclear if and when Obama had his name legally changed back to Barack Hussein Obama, II."
Friday, August 1, 2008
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Senior Lecturer Obama
The young law professor stood apart in too many ways to count. At a school where economic analysis was all the rage, he taught rights, race and gender. Other faculty members dreamed of tenured positions; he turned them down. While most colleagues published by the pound, he never completed a single work of legal scholarship.
The school had almost no black faculty members, a special embarrassment given its location on the South Side.
“On the national level, bipartisanship usually means Democrats ignore the needs of the poor and abandon the idea that government can play a role in issues of poverty, race discrimination, sex discrimination or environmental protection,” Mr. Obama said.
The school had almost no black faculty members, a special embarrassment given its location on the South Side.
“On the national level, bipartisanship usually means Democrats ignore the needs of the poor and abandon the idea that government can play a role in issues of poverty, race discrimination, sex discrimination or environmental protection,” Mr. Obama said.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Paradigm Shift on Iraq
If the debate turns to whether or not to have major bases in Iraq, is it fair to say that their need as perceived by the American public will be directly related to the perceived need to contain Iran?
If so, debate about Iran in this election will be a direct evolution of the debate about Iraq.
Questions about Iraq:
What is the Iraqi constitution?
What is the current political situation in Iraq?
Who is Maliki and who are his supporters?
What has been the overt role of Challabi as of late?
What are some news sources, English language, that cover developments in Iraq that are beneath the radar of, say, The New York Times?
What exactly is the relationship between the Iraqi government and the US embassy?
When will the Status of Forces Agreement be negotiated?
What sort of leverage does each side bring to the agreement?
Just how important are major bases in Iraq to the US military?
If so, debate about Iran in this election will be a direct evolution of the debate about Iraq.
Questions about Iraq:
What is the Iraqi constitution?
What is the current political situation in Iraq?
Who is Maliki and who are his supporters?
What has been the overt role of Challabi as of late?
What are some news sources, English language, that cover developments in Iraq that are beneath the radar of, say, The New York Times?
What exactly is the relationship between the Iraqi government and the US embassy?
When will the Status of Forces Agreement be negotiated?
What sort of leverage does each side bring to the agreement?
Just how important are major bases in Iraq to the US military?
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Links to Remember
Working paper giving some support to the intuitive voter theory.
Econtalk podcast on polling
http://www.econlib.org/library/Downloads/y2008/Riverspolling.mp3
A lot of links came out of that econtalk episode.
1st- Did you know the Washington Post offers too many RSS feeds here?
I think I have decided to wait for Real Clear Politics to suggest an article for me rather than wade through all those on a daily basis.
2nd - In the podcast, Rivers discusses his polling methodology and how it differs from traditional random dialing polling. It is somewhat convincing that his method should produce more accurate results which is why this is a great link to a detailed weekly poll he conducts for the economist. Why doesn't the economist have an RSS feed for this? (I still haven't figured out how to make my own RSS feeds for sites.) If your in the mood for a bit of in depth poll analysis, this would be the place to start.
3rd - Here we have polling results for elections past, although I bet there is a better resource somewhere out there. Also, check out those historic exit polls.
4th - Uncommon Knowledge is a video series available through the Hoover website but without an RSS.
Hoover events are here. Again, no rss.
5th- fora.tv - the thinking person's youtube.
5 and a half - the website www.rove.com yields a picture of Karl Rove and a "This page does not exist" however, http://www.rove.com/maps/McCain-Obama-07-23-08.pdf yields an electoral map with a KarlRove&Co. Apparently NBC's First Read found this without the help of a homepage.
6 - Yahoo polls on the 2008 race conducted by Knowledge Networks. (no rss)
7 - audible.com - download audio books.
PS. Chris Mathews had an interesting prediction that the debate which will come into focus soon will be whether or not to have long term bases in Iraq.
Econtalk podcast on polling
http://www.econlib.org/library/Downloads/y2008/Riverspolling.mp3
A lot of links came out of that econtalk episode.
1st- Did you know the Washington Post offers too many RSS feeds here?
I think I have decided to wait for Real Clear Politics to suggest an article for me rather than wade through all those on a daily basis.
2nd - In the podcast, Rivers discusses his polling methodology and how it differs from traditional random dialing polling. It is somewhat convincing that his method should produce more accurate results which is why this is a great link to a detailed weekly poll he conducts for the economist. Why doesn't the economist have an RSS feed for this? (I still haven't figured out how to make my own RSS feeds for sites.) If your in the mood for a bit of in depth poll analysis, this would be the place to start.
3rd - Here we have polling results for elections past, although I bet there is a better resource somewhere out there. Also, check out those historic exit polls.
4th - Uncommon Knowledge is a video series available through the Hoover website but without an RSS.
Hoover events are here. Again, no rss.
5th- fora.tv - the thinking person's youtube.
5 and a half - the website www.rove.com yields a picture of Karl Rove and a "This page does not exist" however, http://www.rove.com/maps/McCain-Obama-07-23-08.pdf yields an electoral map with a KarlRove&Co. Apparently NBC's First Read found this without the help of a homepage.
6 - Yahoo polls on the 2008 race conducted by Knowledge Networks. (no rss)
7 - audible.com - download audio books.
PS. Chris Mathews had an interesting prediction that the debate which will come into focus soon will be whether or not to have long term bases in Iraq.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Sometimes the News Drives the Polls; Sometimes the Polls Drive the News
As Obama's trip wraps up, the media will increasingly turn its attention to the polls. The predominant theme in media discourse will be 'What's up with those polls?'. (To review Obama as Christ-->Obama as FlipFlopper-->Obama goes round the world-->Polls: WTF!?)
What happened? He went abroad, his trip was executed perfectly, no gaffes, he got adoring coverage, and yet the polls actually tightened during this period. Political analysts across the spectrum will be put to task explaining the conundrum. They will speculate: They don't appreciate a candidate speaking to a foreign audience? Is it energy policy? Is it Iraq? Are American's just a racist lot. (It's true the MSM shies away from the last interpretation).
Eventually it will be uncovered that the culprit is a structural weakness in Obama's appeal which has always been present. Getting to the root of this weakness will require even more national psychoanalysis.
Constant attempts to explain Obama's poor polling can do nothing but further harm him as a laundry list of everything that might cause him to be less than trusted is recited.(Since it has already been concluded that this election is a referendum on Obama and therefore no MSM will conclude that people actually like McCain.) Look for new terms to be invented to encapsulate negative beliefs about or demographic groups opposed to Obama. (Something like angry white men, working class whites, Closet Klansmen, whatever term will help members of the media to wrap their heads around the phenomenon.) And expect this term to be a ubiquitous part of the election until November. Also look for a flip-flopper echo effect. (ie. media says Obama's a flip-flopper-->Obama's polls lag-->media wonders if it's because Obama is a flip-flopper-->Perception of Obama as flip-flopper is reinforced.)
Phase two will include a revised look at John McCain. During this period Mccain may actually see increased ability to drive the discourse and will inevitably steer it to Iraq. (Cause that's what he does.) This will be his best chance to connect with voters who have yet to come up with an affirmative reason to vote for him. Were he a more nimble candidate, one with Karl Rove or Fred Barnes as a chief strategist perhaps, he could possibly use this opportunity to re-position himself on energy/the economy. As he is the one-note wonder, this period will simply be a hazardous one where his frequent mis-statements will receive greater scrutiny. (Possibly by a deflated media somewhat embittered to discover they could not coronate the president as they could the Democratic nominee.)
Perhaps this is a good thing as it keeps the focus on his issues. Better a murky debate on Iraq than a murky debate on the economy. But if he fails to communicate a clear plan on energy, housing, and his philosophy of sound economic management, and Obama does those things this will obviously be pointed to as his undoing.)
That's pretty much the dynamic from now until VPs are announced. Since both candidates remain rather undefined, the veep choice will be particularly important.
Since we're going to be talking about polling, whatever happened with those New Hampshire polls? And the California polls? Why were they wrong? Why do we care what the polls say until we can answer why they were wrong? Shouldn't we just be disregarding them or assume that they might be vastly overestimating Obama's support?
It's possible we'll go into election day expecting a giant Obama victory and be surprised to see him lose every battle ground. It already happened once on Super Tuesday.
What happened? He went abroad, his trip was executed perfectly, no gaffes, he got adoring coverage, and yet the polls actually tightened during this period. Political analysts across the spectrum will be put to task explaining the conundrum. They will speculate: They don't appreciate a candidate speaking to a foreign audience? Is it energy policy? Is it Iraq? Are American's just a racist lot. (It's true the MSM shies away from the last interpretation).
Eventually it will be uncovered that the culprit is a structural weakness in Obama's appeal which has always been present. Getting to the root of this weakness will require even more national psychoanalysis.
Constant attempts to explain Obama's poor polling can do nothing but further harm him as a laundry list of everything that might cause him to be less than trusted is recited.(Since it has already been concluded that this election is a referendum on Obama and therefore no MSM will conclude that people actually like McCain.) Look for new terms to be invented to encapsulate negative beliefs about or demographic groups opposed to Obama. (Something like angry white men, working class whites, Closet Klansmen, whatever term will help members of the media to wrap their heads around the phenomenon.) And expect this term to be a ubiquitous part of the election until November. Also look for a flip-flopper echo effect. (ie. media says Obama's a flip-flopper-->Obama's polls lag-->media wonders if it's because Obama is a flip-flopper-->Perception of Obama as flip-flopper is reinforced.)
Phase two will include a revised look at John McCain. During this period Mccain may actually see increased ability to drive the discourse and will inevitably steer it to Iraq. (Cause that's what he does.) This will be his best chance to connect with voters who have yet to come up with an affirmative reason to vote for him. Were he a more nimble candidate, one with Karl Rove or Fred Barnes as a chief strategist perhaps, he could possibly use this opportunity to re-position himself on energy/the economy. As he is the one-note wonder, this period will simply be a hazardous one where his frequent mis-statements will receive greater scrutiny. (Possibly by a deflated media somewhat embittered to discover they could not coronate the president as they could the Democratic nominee.)
Perhaps this is a good thing as it keeps the focus on his issues. Better a murky debate on Iraq than a murky debate on the economy. But if he fails to communicate a clear plan on energy, housing, and his philosophy of sound economic management, and Obama does those things this will obviously be pointed to as his undoing.)
That's pretty much the dynamic from now until VPs are announced. Since both candidates remain rather undefined, the veep choice will be particularly important.
Since we're going to be talking about polling, whatever happened with those New Hampshire polls? And the California polls? Why were they wrong? Why do we care what the polls say until we can answer why they were wrong? Shouldn't we just be disregarding them or assume that they might be vastly overestimating Obama's support?
It's possible we'll go into election day expecting a giant Obama victory and be surprised to see him lose every battle ground. It already happened once on Super Tuesday.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Garbage Out
Obama has a problem: What do you do when you're a lightly accomplished one-term senator, a former state legislator from Illinois, a Harvard law graduate who has no substantive record of accomplishments, and you are running against a war hero whom polls show that Americans overwhelmingly view as far more fit to be commander in chief?
-Maggie Gallagher
Observations:
At this point, the Obama as globetrotter narrative has completely displaced the Obama as flip-flopper narrative.
Obama should be leading by like 20 points by now and although electoral map combinations that would produce a McCain victory are still far fewer than those which produce an Obama victory, McCain should be absolutely ecstatic about his current standing.
So far I have yet to hear any rationale for preferring Obama on the economy but McCain seems to be winning on energy.
Obama has been extremely lucky in terms of the extent of confusion currently surrounding the Iraq debate. (Is it possible some Democrats reached out to Maliki?) Also, his trip seems to be going well. Nonetheless, every single day spent discussing foreign policy is Obama -1, McCain +1. A steady drumbeat of popular economic proposals would be the nail in the coffin for the Republican party.
It does not get nearly enough mention that Barack won the Democratic primaries on a fluke. He lost all of the real contests in the primaries.
Theory:
People don't vote rationally, they vote emotionally. As such, they do not examine the candidates logically, but intuitively. Nonetheless, the essential information which people need to make their choice is usually conveyed and evaluated appropriately. Even in the extreme case of misinformation, for example, the "Obama is a Muslim" myth (because he is actually an apostate) it's a perfect stand-in for a more nuanced debate about multi-culturalism.
Another theory:
Obama is smart and talented. He seems to be a competent manager and is obviously a gifted orator. Nonetheless, no amount of talent can fully account for his meteoric rise. Even Kennedy was a war hero and had a wealthy prominent family that paved the way for him. In Obama's case we can only fully account for his rise on the basis that he is black.
At first, this may seem too obvious to be worth mentioning. But I'm not sure that people are really examining the depth, breadth, significance, and consequences of this fact.
As for depth, how long has Obama been trading primarily on the color of his skin. Did it help him to obtain his college scholarship? Is it possible that it was the deciding factor for his selection as the Harvard Law Review president? (Of course it was!)Was it a factor in getting his later post at the University of Chicago?
I have read that the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa was a significant launching point for Obama's campaign. Having been there, I thought Obama was flat. Edwards was clearly head and shoulders above every other candidate in terms of raw stump speech ability. ie. If you take away Obama's blackness, you possibly take away every outstanding aspect of his career.
In regards to its significance, it shows just how powerful the Liberal guilt complex is as a driver of race relations. In many ways blacks like Obama can be like a white person in Asia. (I meant for this to be a jumping off point for a deeper analysis of the Liberal psyche and what I find so disagreeable about it, but I'm not up for it right now.)
So now we're on the verge of the affirmative action nightmare, a less qualified person in a position where we cannot afford to have anything but the most competent.
Take away his blackness and Barack Obama has done nothing of significance in his career. Take away his blackness and you take away his entire candidacy.
I wouldn't vote against someone just because they are black. Likewise, I wouldn't vote for someone just because they are black.
-Maggie Gallagher
Observations:
At this point, the Obama as globetrotter narrative has completely displaced the Obama as flip-flopper narrative.
Obama should be leading by like 20 points by now and although electoral map combinations that would produce a McCain victory are still far fewer than those which produce an Obama victory, McCain should be absolutely ecstatic about his current standing.
So far I have yet to hear any rationale for preferring Obama on the economy but McCain seems to be winning on energy.
Obama has been extremely lucky in terms of the extent of confusion currently surrounding the Iraq debate. (Is it possible some Democrats reached out to Maliki?) Also, his trip seems to be going well. Nonetheless, every single day spent discussing foreign policy is Obama -1, McCain +1. A steady drumbeat of popular economic proposals would be the nail in the coffin for the Republican party.
It does not get nearly enough mention that Barack won the Democratic primaries on a fluke. He lost all of the real contests in the primaries.
Theory:
People don't vote rationally, they vote emotionally. As such, they do not examine the candidates logically, but intuitively. Nonetheless, the essential information which people need to make their choice is usually conveyed and evaluated appropriately. Even in the extreme case of misinformation, for example, the "Obama is a Muslim" myth (because he is actually an apostate) it's a perfect stand-in for a more nuanced debate about multi-culturalism.
Another theory:
Obama is smart and talented. He seems to be a competent manager and is obviously a gifted orator. Nonetheless, no amount of talent can fully account for his meteoric rise. Even Kennedy was a war hero and had a wealthy prominent family that paved the way for him. In Obama's case we can only fully account for his rise on the basis that he is black.
At first, this may seem too obvious to be worth mentioning. But I'm not sure that people are really examining the depth, breadth, significance, and consequences of this fact.
As for depth, how long has Obama been trading primarily on the color of his skin. Did it help him to obtain his college scholarship? Is it possible that it was the deciding factor for his selection as the Harvard Law Review president? (Of course it was!)Was it a factor in getting his later post at the University of Chicago?
I have read that the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa was a significant launching point for Obama's campaign. Having been there, I thought Obama was flat. Edwards was clearly head and shoulders above every other candidate in terms of raw stump speech ability. ie. If you take away Obama's blackness, you possibly take away every outstanding aspect of his career.
In regards to its significance, it shows just how powerful the Liberal guilt complex is as a driver of race relations. In many ways blacks like Obama can be like a white person in Asia. (I meant for this to be a jumping off point for a deeper analysis of the Liberal psyche and what I find so disagreeable about it, but I'm not up for it right now.)
So now we're on the verge of the affirmative action nightmare, a less qualified person in a position where we cannot afford to have anything but the most competent.
Take away his blackness and Barack Obama has done nothing of significance in his career. Take away his blackness and you take away his entire candidacy.
I wouldn't vote against someone just because they are black. Likewise, I wouldn't vote for someone just because they are black.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
John McCain: Iraq War Hero
So Obama wants to portray his opposition to the surge as part of a more comprehensive national security strategy. This might just be the start of that election defining Iraq debate that I had been anticipating. Seems even more likely if Obama's unwillingness to change the subject when getting bad press turns out to be a persistent character flaw. Ultimately, Obama is going to run up against the fact that McCain also has a broader national security plan, ie. the global war against Islamic extremism. Obama faces the unfortunate reality of being up against the legislator most responsible for the successful surge and he would do well to simply change the subject. That's all he has to do in fact, talk about the economy every single day. Otherwise, his perfectionism, which does not allow him to concede a single issue, will be his downfall.
One other question which I'm a bit too lazy to really get into, but what does Obama do if while withdrawing troops, things get worse? Does he stop withdrawing troops? In which case what is the difference between his plan and McCain's? Or does he continue withdrawing troops, in which case how is his plan responsible or anything other than snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
One other question which I'm a bit too lazy to really get into, but what does Obama do if while withdrawing troops, things get worse? Does he stop withdrawing troops? In which case what is the difference between his plan and McCain's? Or does he continue withdrawing troops, in which case how is his plan responsible or anything other than snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Obama plays twister, McCain plays hide and seek
Monday, July 7, 2008
Point #1
Looking at the electoral map today I came to the conclusion there are just a lot more ways for Obama to win it than for McCain. Starting from the Bush/Kerry map, if Obama merely picks up Iowa and Indiana he's got it. There's really no battleground states that McCain is likely to pick up. There are, however, a lot of other ways Obama could get over the top. This makes me think a radical shift in strategy might be appropriate for McCain, namely winning California. To do this he should 1. choose a Hispanic VP 2. introduce favorable immigration legislation with his name on it (again). This along with the fact that Hispanics have been moving toward the GOP and Hispanic animosity towards blacks might be enough to win California and Florida and keep the Southwest which basically allows McCain to lose every other battleground and still win.
If someone can explain to me why this is not possible I would appreciate it.
(Is this possibly what Jeb has had in mind all along?)
Point #2
Just as Obama has inoculated himself from charges of being a radical liberal, McCain needs to inoculate himself against charges that he is Bushy. This should mainly be in the realm of a positive (hopeful) message of reform and economic growth, which is in some way a significant departure from Bush policies. (But shouldn't be about Iraq)
Point #3
Eventually the candidates' past and present positions on Iraq are going to be understood and the issue will move from advantage Obama to advantage McCain. McCain's position was not the Bush position until Bush advocated the surge. He's on record criticizing Rumsfeld. To the anti-war people who were pro-war and are really anti-losing-war, they'll realize that McCain had it right all along. Obama meanwhile is stuck with an outdated position which he either has to maintain, against the rallying cry that he wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or make a dramatic change to a cornerstone issue. This last week has revived my original thinking which was, if it gets down to McCain and Obama it's gonna be all about Iraq. (Whereas Romney vs. Clinton for example would have made Iraq a complete non-issue.)
Point #4
I can't see McCain on intrade going much lower than 30 between now and the election. I can definitely see it moving to the upside. I still say, take McCain now, it's free money. (But take the profit when it comes.)
Point #5
The fact of the Obama shift is now crystallized in public opinion. He should take a small hit in the polls for this and it should taint the tone of coverage towards his campaign for the next couple weeks. (Every policy statement will elicit the question, 'Is this yet another shift'?) Has enough time gone by for it to show up in the polls already? I'm looking for shift-->media acknowledgment of shift--->public acknowledgment of shift--->polls reflect shift--->prediction markets reflect shift. I don't expect it to be big, but movement.
Point#6
Regarding Obama's apple pie campaign, he's got this problem where he wants to say 'I go to church everyday' but that might put the picture of Reverend Wright in people's minds.
Conclusions:
Buy McCain
Obama's shift is a long-term plus for him but reading that NYtimes editorial you know its a temporary negative and will induce further John Stewart mockery.
If McCain chooses Romney as VP I will puke, if he chooses a Hispanic he will be my hero.
As I said last post, McCain is not conventional GOP, as William Kristol explained about the 'staff shakeups'.
We still don't know anything about Obama, and that's why he can't be trusted. (And this should be the GOP refrain, not: flip-flop.)
Point #1
Looking at the electoral map today I came to the conclusion there are just a lot more ways for Obama to win it than for McCain. Starting from the Bush/Kerry map, if Obama merely picks up Iowa and Indiana he's got it. There's really no battleground states that McCain is likely to pick up. There are, however, a lot of other ways Obama could get over the top. This makes me think a radical shift in strategy might be appropriate for McCain, namely winning California. To do this he should 1. choose a Hispanic VP 2. introduce favorable immigration legislation with his name on it (again). This along with the fact that Hispanics have been moving toward the GOP and Hispanic animosity towards blacks might be enough to win California and Florida and keep the Southwest which basically allows McCain to lose every other battleground and still win.
If someone can explain to me why this is not possible I would appreciate it.
(Is this possibly what Jeb has had in mind all along?)
Point #2
Just as Obama has inoculated himself from charges of being a radical liberal, McCain needs to inoculate himself against charges that he is Bushy. This should mainly be in the realm of a positive (hopeful) message of reform and economic growth, which is in some way a significant departure from Bush policies. (But shouldn't be about Iraq)
Point #3
Eventually the candidates' past and present positions on Iraq are going to be understood and the issue will move from advantage Obama to advantage McCain. McCain's position was not the Bush position until Bush advocated the surge. He's on record criticizing Rumsfeld. To the anti-war people who were pro-war and are really anti-losing-war, they'll realize that McCain had it right all along. Obama meanwhile is stuck with an outdated position which he either has to maintain, against the rallying cry that he wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or make a dramatic change to a cornerstone issue. This last week has revived my original thinking which was, if it gets down to McCain and Obama it's gonna be all about Iraq. (Whereas Romney vs. Clinton for example would have made Iraq a complete non-issue.)
Point #4
I can't see McCain on intrade going much lower than 30 between now and the election. I can definitely see it moving to the upside. I still say, take McCain now, it's free money. (But take the profit when it comes.)
Point #5
The fact of the Obama shift is now crystallized in public opinion. He should take a small hit in the polls for this and it should taint the tone of coverage towards his campaign for the next couple weeks. (Every policy statement will elicit the question, 'Is this yet another shift'?) Has enough time gone by for it to show up in the polls already? I'm looking for shift-->media acknowledgment of shift--->public acknowledgment of shift--->polls reflect shift--->prediction markets reflect shift. I don't expect it to be big, but movement.
Point#6
Regarding Obama's apple pie campaign, he's got this problem where he wants to say 'I go to church everyday' but that might put the picture of Reverend Wright in people's minds.
Conclusions:
Buy McCain
Obama's shift is a long-term plus for him but reading that NYtimes editorial you know its a temporary negative and will induce further John Stewart mockery.
If McCain chooses Romney as VP I will puke, if he chooses a Hispanic he will be my hero.
As I said last post, McCain is not conventional GOP, as William Kristol explained about the 'staff shakeups'.
We still don't know anything about Obama, and that's why he can't be trusted. (And this should be the GOP refrain, not: flip-flop.)
Obama Shifts and the Anti-Obama Vote
Recently, Obama has opted out of public finance, and significantly shifted on just about every important issue. His policy shifts, to a certain extent, inundate him against the claim that he's an out of the mainstream left-winger. But they open him up to the claim that we still don't even know who he is. He barely has a record, including in the Illinois legislature where he voted 'present', and the short record he has now contradicts itself. Certainly he has gone a long way to prove that he is a 'typical politician' after all, something John Stewart has duly noted and begun to ridicule.
Today's The Note anticipates John McCain running a Bush-like campaign in that it will focus on national security. But that's clearly not John McCain's style, as his style is to do what seems to be the most illogical thing possible. John McCain is not the typical politician which is why he ends up confusing so many people with his trips to foreign countries instead of to swing states and with his economic policies that get bashed by Karl Rove in the WSJ.
A number of commentators, and Obama's strategists, have mentioned higher turnout as a key Obama strength to put certain states into play. Nobody mentions that it's possible the anti-Obama vote will also make a strong showing. I assumed as far back as New Hampshire that a significant portion of the Hillary vote was actually an anti-Obama vote. If it had been a weaker politician than Hillary we would have assumed this automatically but her stature masked it. Do you really think that Hillary became a working class hero overnight because people just fell in love with her? One explanation for those skewed polls involving black politicians in the 80s could be that the polls did not accurately reflect the animosity of those not supporting the candidate which causes their turnout rate to be higher. (Move Virginia and Missouri to the McCain column.) This is one reason why Hispanics might turn out for McCain by a lopsided margin. (Move Colorado and New Mexico to the McCain column.)
It is still true that Obama has gotten this far via cakewalk. Getting his senate seat was a cakewalk, and the majority of the states he won for the nomination were basically uncontested. In terms of tough victories all he can point to is Iowa.
Today's The Note anticipates John McCain running a Bush-like campaign in that it will focus on national security. But that's clearly not John McCain's style, as his style is to do what seems to be the most illogical thing possible. John McCain is not the typical politician which is why he ends up confusing so many people with his trips to foreign countries instead of to swing states and with his economic policies that get bashed by Karl Rove in the WSJ.
A number of commentators, and Obama's strategists, have mentioned higher turnout as a key Obama strength to put certain states into play. Nobody mentions that it's possible the anti-Obama vote will also make a strong showing. I assumed as far back as New Hampshire that a significant portion of the Hillary vote was actually an anti-Obama vote. If it had been a weaker politician than Hillary we would have assumed this automatically but her stature masked it. Do you really think that Hillary became a working class hero overnight because people just fell in love with her? One explanation for those skewed polls involving black politicians in the 80s could be that the polls did not accurately reflect the animosity of those not supporting the candidate which causes their turnout rate to be higher. (Move Virginia and Missouri to the McCain column.) This is one reason why Hispanics might turn out for McCain by a lopsided margin. (Move Colorado and New Mexico to the McCain column.)
It is still true that Obama has gotten this far via cakewalk. Getting his senate seat was a cakewalk, and the majority of the states he won for the nomination were basically uncontested. In terms of tough victories all he can point to is Iowa.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The general state of things
I feel like its time to review some assumptions, most of which have absolutely no relevance to my life.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
Testing Testing
Just writing this to see if I can post to my blog even though I cannot view my blog*.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
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