Due Credit and Caution

Now that McCain has moved to 39 on intrade and Obama to 58, the millions of you who regularly read this blog and follow its suggestions have made tons of cash. Good job. Now be careful over the next two weeks. The current narrative --the race is ugly and the race is tied -- might yield to the realization that a tie goes to Obama. I assume it has been the changed poll numbers which have driven the market. If the changes in the polls stall out at even, people will realize that all Obama has to do is win one swing state and hold all of Kerry's states. The market will then shift back toward Obama even as the polls stay put. On the other hand, it goes without saying that if a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan looks to lean-McCain, the McCain upside is like 25. (But I don't see that happening.)