Examining the graphs from the past week, three battleground states showed significant movement for McCain between the 15th-16th (Friday-Saturday).
Poll releases seem to tell the story:
|Rocky Mtn News/CBS4||08/11 - 08/13||500 RV||41||44||McCain +3|
Looking further back, it's apparent the CO price has been following the polls. Obama reached a high of 75 prior to the release of the first poll in which McCain lead on 7/22. From that point it has been a steady decline with the exception of a short uptick on 8/8 when the PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 4.
McCain now leads in the CO polls but trails on Intrade. (Small lead according to RCP, dead even according to pollster.com, slightly behind according to 538 which weights the Rocky Mnt News poll at .75) Are the markets pricing in the anticipated effects of the DNC convention?
As for Nevada and Florida, they both had recent poll releases that favored McCain. The date on 538 is 8/11. Polls tend to carry the dates they were conducted rather than released whereas the latter date is more useful for my purposes.