DEM.VP

Regarding the DEM.VP intrade markets, we can now take a look and see how they performed. Of interest: market efficiency, their prediction accuracy, and reaction to Biden's headfake (8/19).
Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.


Clearly there was a reaction to Biden's headfake. His price had been surging and suddenly dropped for 2 days. Kaine and Bayh's prices both increased after Biden said he was 'not the guy' (What a Dbag!) It might be more significant that it didn't decrease more as it would indicate some traders knew Biden was the pick, or possibly just knew Biden is moronic enough to pointlessly deny something that would be announced in two days. It also may have been decreasing slowly due to market inefficiency. (Including some traders not getting word of Biden's statement.)


Here's a trade by trade graph starting hours before the announcement.
Interesting how it jumped to 90 and then fell back to 70 before climbing to where its at. Were some people just cashing in causing the price to drop? Did some traders know for sure but the speculators pushed the price back down? Did news reports give mixed signals?



Interestingly, unlike the other two candidates, Kaine's largest day of trading volume occurred on the 21st. Amid the swirl of speculation over the past week is was difficult to determine which new information mattered and I think I discounted some quote from Kaine on the 21st, but it was obviously a market mover.




Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.


This is the last 48 hours of Bayh trading (ending at 3pm 8/23) ie. it gives insight into just what took place within that frenzied volume of trading shown in the final two days of the first graph. It wasn't all straight down. Specifically, something happened around 6pm on Friday that seems to have convinced a lot of people that Bayh was the pick. That topped out at 50 before the price basically nose-dived to 0. (When exactly did official word of the pick go out? Was it Friday evening as this graph would suggest? What time did news break of the Obama-Bayh yard sign?)

According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)

LMAO@Obama-Biden

There is a reason nobody took Biden's presidential campaign seriously in the first place. Biden is not appropriate for national television. His total inability to shut his mouth is a character flaw. His Jefferson Jackson dinner speech in Iowa was literally the worst speech I have ever heard in my entire life. (And I have attended English language Toastmasters meetings in Beijing). When he starts talking too much during Cspan coverage of congressional hearings, I can turn it off or skip forward 20 minutes, but there in Iowa I could do nothing but count his attempts to invoke an aura of weightiness by saying "ladies and gentlemen" over and over and over. Sure one could argue that Biden's policy stances contradict what Obama claims to stand for. Or that these policy stances are flawed. Or mention his plagiarism in 1988. But if I was Steve Schmidt or Rick Davis, I might just say nothing. Attacking Biden gives him an undeserved credibility, evidencing a concern that without the attacks people might not see through his rhetoric for what he really is. There need not be such concern with Biden. Just let him introduce himself to the American public in the way that he sees best fit. That will surely be off-putting enough for the majority of Americans.
Dems should be crying. They could have Clinton-Obama. Instead they have Obama-Biden. LMAO.


As for McCain, I'm assuming that both Rice and Petreus, for whatever reasons, are not actually choosable. I'm hoping for Pawlenty and if it's Romney I will be rather disappointed.

Ohio polls and price movement

A new PPP poll shows Obama and McCain tied in Ohio. The previous PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 8 points. Rasmussen will most likely be the next to release an Ohio poll. Their previous release had McCain ahead by 10 points and prior to that two months of McCain leading by 1. It seems possible that PPP set up Ohio to shift from lean Obama to lean McCain and Rasmussen might push it over the edge. In other words look for the Rasmussen report to move Ohio.Rep higher.

Week in Review 8/9-8/16

Examining the graphs from the past week, three battleground states showed significant movement for McCain between the 15th-16th (Friday-Saturday).

Poll releases seem to tell the story:
Sat. 8/16

Rocky Mtn News/CBS4

08/11 - 08/13

500 RV

41

44

McCain +3

Fri. 8/15
Rasmussen: Obama 48, McCain 49 McCain +1

Looking further back, it's apparent the CO price has been following the polls. Obama reached a high of 75 prior to the release of the first poll in which McCain lead on 7/22. From that point it has been a steady decline with the exception of a short uptick on 8/8 when the PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 4.
McCain now leads in the CO polls but trails on Intrade. (Small lead according to RCP, dead even according to pollster.com, slightly behind according to 538 which weights the Rocky Mnt News poll at .75) Are the markets pricing in the anticipated effects of the DNC convention?

As for Nevada and Florida, they both had recent poll releases that favored McCain. The date on 538 is 8/11. Polls tend to carry the dates they were conducted rather than released whereas the latter date is more useful for my purposes.

ANY

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