1. Sell High-tech German goods to Chinese
Premise: The Euro is low vs. the RMB now and it is not coming back for a long time (never). If the Eurozone were to break up, the Mark would appreciate while every other European currency depreciated. This means that the Euro is currently holding down the cost of German exports. If you were going to make a large investment in high-tech machinery, now would be the time to do it. There must be at least a few cash rich Chinese companies, moving up the ladder of sophistication, and facing rising labor costs, that want to replace a thousand worker assembly line with a machine and a few engineers. I hear Germany makes machines like that. Will they pay me to find said companies?
2. Help Americans invest in China
Premise: Returns in America are low and will be for a long time. Alternatively, the Fed will allow for a higher rate of temporary inflation and during that time the dollar will be a carry trade currency. Either way, an investment in China looks attractive as it offers high returns with a good chance of currency appreciation or inflation induced asset appreciation. The problem is that traditional investment options suck. The property and stock markets have already peaked. The types of businesses likely to thrive in the next few years are the exact type not listed in Shanghai, Hong Kong, or New York. They are small and medium consumer oriented businesses. There just might be some money in helping Americans find these investment opportunities.
What do you think, and how do you think it?