So Obama wants to portray his opposition to the surge as part of a more comprehensive national security strategy. This might just be the start of that election defining Iraq debate that I had been anticipating. Seems even more likely if Obama's unwillingness to change the subject when getting bad press turns out to be a persistent character flaw. Ultimately, Obama is going to run up against the fact that McCain also has a broader national security plan, ie. the global war against Islamic extremism. Obama faces the unfortunate reality of being up against the legislator most responsible for the successful surge and he would do well to simply change the subject. That's all he has to do in fact, talk about the economy every single day. Otherwise, his perfectionism, which does not allow him to concede a single issue, will be his downfall.
One other question which I'm a bit too lazy to really get into, but what does Obama do if while withdrawing troops, things get worse? Does he stop withdrawing troops? In which case what is the difference between his plan and McCain's? Or does he continue withdrawing troops, in which case how is his plan responsible or anything other than snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Obama plays twister, McCain plays hide and seek
Monday, July 7, 2008
Point #1
Looking at the electoral map today I came to the conclusion there are just a lot more ways for Obama to win it than for McCain. Starting from the Bush/Kerry map, if Obama merely picks up Iowa and Indiana he's got it. There's really no battleground states that McCain is likely to pick up. There are, however, a lot of other ways Obama could get over the top. This makes me think a radical shift in strategy might be appropriate for McCain, namely winning California. To do this he should 1. choose a Hispanic VP 2. introduce favorable immigration legislation with his name on it (again). This along with the fact that Hispanics have been moving toward the GOP and Hispanic animosity towards blacks might be enough to win California and Florida and keep the Southwest which basically allows McCain to lose every other battleground and still win.
If someone can explain to me why this is not possible I would appreciate it.
(Is this possibly what Jeb has had in mind all along?)
Point #2
Just as Obama has inoculated himself from charges of being a radical liberal, McCain needs to inoculate himself against charges that he is Bushy. This should mainly be in the realm of a positive (hopeful) message of reform and economic growth, which is in some way a significant departure from Bush policies. (But shouldn't be about Iraq)
Point #3
Eventually the candidates' past and present positions on Iraq are going to be understood and the issue will move from advantage Obama to advantage McCain. McCain's position was not the Bush position until Bush advocated the surge. He's on record criticizing Rumsfeld. To the anti-war people who were pro-war and are really anti-losing-war, they'll realize that McCain had it right all along. Obama meanwhile is stuck with an outdated position which he either has to maintain, against the rallying cry that he wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or make a dramatic change to a cornerstone issue. This last week has revived my original thinking which was, if it gets down to McCain and Obama it's gonna be all about Iraq. (Whereas Romney vs. Clinton for example would have made Iraq a complete non-issue.)
Point #4
I can't see McCain on intrade going much lower than 30 between now and the election. I can definitely see it moving to the upside. I still say, take McCain now, it's free money. (But take the profit when it comes.)
Point #5
The fact of the Obama shift is now crystallized in public opinion. He should take a small hit in the polls for this and it should taint the tone of coverage towards his campaign for the next couple weeks. (Every policy statement will elicit the question, 'Is this yet another shift'?) Has enough time gone by for it to show up in the polls already? I'm looking for shift-->media acknowledgment of shift--->public acknowledgment of shift--->polls reflect shift--->prediction markets reflect shift. I don't expect it to be big, but movement.
Point#6
Regarding Obama's apple pie campaign, he's got this problem where he wants to say 'I go to church everyday' but that might put the picture of Reverend Wright in people's minds.
Conclusions:
Buy McCain
Obama's shift is a long-term plus for him but reading that NYtimes editorial you know its a temporary negative and will induce further John Stewart mockery.
If McCain chooses Romney as VP I will puke, if he chooses a Hispanic he will be my hero.
As I said last post, McCain is not conventional GOP, as William Kristol explained about the 'staff shakeups'.
We still don't know anything about Obama, and that's why he can't be trusted. (And this should be the GOP refrain, not: flip-flop.)
Point #1
Looking at the electoral map today I came to the conclusion there are just a lot more ways for Obama to win it than for McCain. Starting from the Bush/Kerry map, if Obama merely picks up Iowa and Indiana he's got it. There's really no battleground states that McCain is likely to pick up. There are, however, a lot of other ways Obama could get over the top. This makes me think a radical shift in strategy might be appropriate for McCain, namely winning California. To do this he should 1. choose a Hispanic VP 2. introduce favorable immigration legislation with his name on it (again). This along with the fact that Hispanics have been moving toward the GOP and Hispanic animosity towards blacks might be enough to win California and Florida and keep the Southwest which basically allows McCain to lose every other battleground and still win.
If someone can explain to me why this is not possible I would appreciate it.
(Is this possibly what Jeb has had in mind all along?)
Point #2
Just as Obama has inoculated himself from charges of being a radical liberal, McCain needs to inoculate himself against charges that he is Bushy. This should mainly be in the realm of a positive (hopeful) message of reform and economic growth, which is in some way a significant departure from Bush policies. (But shouldn't be about Iraq)
Point #3
Eventually the candidates' past and present positions on Iraq are going to be understood and the issue will move from advantage Obama to advantage McCain. McCain's position was not the Bush position until Bush advocated the surge. He's on record criticizing Rumsfeld. To the anti-war people who were pro-war and are really anti-losing-war, they'll realize that McCain had it right all along. Obama meanwhile is stuck with an outdated position which he either has to maintain, against the rallying cry that he wants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or make a dramatic change to a cornerstone issue. This last week has revived my original thinking which was, if it gets down to McCain and Obama it's gonna be all about Iraq. (Whereas Romney vs. Clinton for example would have made Iraq a complete non-issue.)
Point #4
I can't see McCain on intrade going much lower than 30 between now and the election. I can definitely see it moving to the upside. I still say, take McCain now, it's free money. (But take the profit when it comes.)
Point #5
The fact of the Obama shift is now crystallized in public opinion. He should take a small hit in the polls for this and it should taint the tone of coverage towards his campaign for the next couple weeks. (Every policy statement will elicit the question, 'Is this yet another shift'?) Has enough time gone by for it to show up in the polls already? I'm looking for shift-->media acknowledgment of shift--->public acknowledgment of shift--->polls reflect shift--->prediction markets reflect shift. I don't expect it to be big, but movement.
Point#6
Regarding Obama's apple pie campaign, he's got this problem where he wants to say 'I go to church everyday' but that might put the picture of Reverend Wright in people's minds.
Conclusions:
Buy McCain
Obama's shift is a long-term plus for him but reading that NYtimes editorial you know its a temporary negative and will induce further John Stewart mockery.
If McCain chooses Romney as VP I will puke, if he chooses a Hispanic he will be my hero.
As I said last post, McCain is not conventional GOP, as William Kristol explained about the 'staff shakeups'.
We still don't know anything about Obama, and that's why he can't be trusted. (And this should be the GOP refrain, not: flip-flop.)
Obama Shifts and the Anti-Obama Vote
Recently, Obama has opted out of public finance, and significantly shifted on just about every important issue. His policy shifts, to a certain extent, inundate him against the claim that he's an out of the mainstream left-winger. But they open him up to the claim that we still don't even know who he is. He barely has a record, including in the Illinois legislature where he voted 'present', and the short record he has now contradicts itself. Certainly he has gone a long way to prove that he is a 'typical politician' after all, something John Stewart has duly noted and begun to ridicule.
Today's The Note anticipates John McCain running a Bush-like campaign in that it will focus on national security. But that's clearly not John McCain's style, as his style is to do what seems to be the most illogical thing possible. John McCain is not the typical politician which is why he ends up confusing so many people with his trips to foreign countries instead of to swing states and with his economic policies that get bashed by Karl Rove in the WSJ.
A number of commentators, and Obama's strategists, have mentioned higher turnout as a key Obama strength to put certain states into play. Nobody mentions that it's possible the anti-Obama vote will also make a strong showing. I assumed as far back as New Hampshire that a significant portion of the Hillary vote was actually an anti-Obama vote. If it had been a weaker politician than Hillary we would have assumed this automatically but her stature masked it. Do you really think that Hillary became a working class hero overnight because people just fell in love with her? One explanation for those skewed polls involving black politicians in the 80s could be that the polls did not accurately reflect the animosity of those not supporting the candidate which causes their turnout rate to be higher. (Move Virginia and Missouri to the McCain column.) This is one reason why Hispanics might turn out for McCain by a lopsided margin. (Move Colorado and New Mexico to the McCain column.)
It is still true that Obama has gotten this far via cakewalk. Getting his senate seat was a cakewalk, and the majority of the states he won for the nomination were basically uncontested. In terms of tough victories all he can point to is Iowa.
Today's The Note anticipates John McCain running a Bush-like campaign in that it will focus on national security. But that's clearly not John McCain's style, as his style is to do what seems to be the most illogical thing possible. John McCain is not the typical politician which is why he ends up confusing so many people with his trips to foreign countries instead of to swing states and with his economic policies that get bashed by Karl Rove in the WSJ.
A number of commentators, and Obama's strategists, have mentioned higher turnout as a key Obama strength to put certain states into play. Nobody mentions that it's possible the anti-Obama vote will also make a strong showing. I assumed as far back as New Hampshire that a significant portion of the Hillary vote was actually an anti-Obama vote. If it had been a weaker politician than Hillary we would have assumed this automatically but her stature masked it. Do you really think that Hillary became a working class hero overnight because people just fell in love with her? One explanation for those skewed polls involving black politicians in the 80s could be that the polls did not accurately reflect the animosity of those not supporting the candidate which causes their turnout rate to be higher. (Move Virginia and Missouri to the McCain column.) This is one reason why Hispanics might turn out for McCain by a lopsided margin. (Move Colorado and New Mexico to the McCain column.)
It is still true that Obama has gotten this far via cakewalk. Getting his senate seat was a cakewalk, and the majority of the states he won for the nomination were basically uncontested. In terms of tough victories all he can point to is Iowa.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The general state of things
I feel like its time to review some assumptions, most of which have absolutely no relevance to my life.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
Testing Testing
Just writing this to see if I can post to my blog even though I cannot view my blog*.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
Monday, November 26, 2007
McCain Blog Roll
- ‘08 Pres Blog
- A Voice of Reason
- Alabama for McCain
- Ali A. Akbar
- ARRA News Service
- AZ-A-Matter-Of Fact
- But I am a Liberal!
- Campaignia
- Captain’s Quarters
- CNN Political Ticker
- Evangelicals for McCain
- Green Mountain Politics
- Hoosiers for McCain
- Hot Air
- Instapundit
- Iowa for McCain
- JohnMcCain.com
- Jon Martin’s Blog
- Libertas01
- McCain 2008 Blog
- McCain Blogette
- McCain Movement
- McCain on YouTube
- McCain OSM
- McCain States’ Blog
- MI for McCain
- Moderates for McCain
- MyMcCainBlog.com
- National Journal Blog
- NH 4 McCain
- NH for McCain
- NJ for McCain
- Partisan American
- PowerLine News
- Real Clear Politics
- Reality Bytes
- Reality Check
- SC for McCain
- Students for McCain
- The Caucus
- TX for McCain
Sunday, November 25, 2007
The New Future of this Blog
Just as a special gift to my non-existent readers:
Blogrolls for all of the 2008 candidates!
Second one is Hillary Clinton. (Tuesday)
In addition, gems from my attempt to write a business plan for a high-tech language learning company in Beijing and sell it to American investors as a play on the RMB.
Finally, strategy memos for Hillary and McCain.
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