Recently, Obama has opted out of public finance, and significantly shifted on just about every important issue. His policy shifts, to a certain extent, inundate him against the claim that he's an out of the mainstream left-winger. But they open him up to the claim that we still don't even know who he is. He barely has a record, including in the Illinois legislature where he voted 'present', and the short record he has now contradicts itself. Certainly he has gone a long way to prove that he is a 'typical politician' after all, something John Stewart has duly noted and begun to ridicule.
Today's The Note anticipates John McCain running a Bush-like campaign in that it will focus on national security. But that's clearly not John McCain's style, as his style is to do what seems to be the most illogical thing possible. John McCain is not the typical politician which is why he ends up confusing so many people with his trips to foreign countries instead of to swing states and with his economic policies that get bashed by Karl Rove in the WSJ.
A number of commentators, and Obama's strategists, have mentioned higher turnout as a key Obama strength to put certain states into play. Nobody mentions that it's possible the anti-Obama vote will also make a strong showing. I assumed as far back as New Hampshire that a significant portion of the Hillary vote was actually an anti-Obama vote. If it had been a weaker politician than Hillary we would have assumed this automatically but her stature masked it. Do you really think that Hillary became a working class hero overnight because people just fell in love with her? One explanation for those skewed polls involving black politicians in the 80s could be that the polls did not accurately reflect the animosity of those not supporting the candidate which causes their turnout rate to be higher. (Move Virginia and Missouri to the McCain column.) This is one reason why Hispanics might turn out for McCain by a lopsided margin. (Move Colorado and New Mexico to the McCain column.)
It is still true that Obama has gotten this far via cakewalk. Getting his senate seat was a cakewalk, and the majority of the states he won for the nomination were basically uncontested. In terms of tough victories all he can point to is Iowa.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
The general state of things
I feel like its time to review some assumptions, most of which have absolutely no relevance to my life.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
I just have a bunch of ish floating around in my head as though I'm hung over despite this being about the most sober period of my post-pubescent life. Thought I could write it all out in Chinglish without any extra effort to make it readable.
1. This is China's last hurrah. After the Olympics its all downhill and into an extended period of sub-par growth. (It might take 6 months or so for the downsing to really set in.)
2. Global Inflation--WTF??? What is the relationship between Chinese inflation and global inflation. What are the consequences of global inflation and the likely policy responses. The answers to these questions go a long way towards everything.
3. I am way too tired to even begin looking for answers to that question.
4. Somehow Hillary is still going to win. If she doesn't Obama will lose the general election by lots of votes. McCain at 39.00 on intrade is free money but you gotta know when to sell. (Do you sell at 45.00??)
5. Poker is now happening in Macao and seems to be growing in popularity throughout Asia. This is awesome for Swedish dudes that enjoy the paid accompaniment of Asian girls.
6. The Olympics are coming and I know there are lots of way to get related jobs and make related money but I can't really think of any.
7. The end of an era. The economic cycle is turning, the Olympics will have come and gone soon enough, and the same can be said for Bush and ChenShuiBian. Its a brave new world and nobody can really say whats gonna happen now.
Testing Testing
Just writing this to see if I can post to my blog even though I cannot view my blog*.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
*The inability to access my blog from mainland China is the only thing holding this country together.
Monday, November 26, 2007
McCain Blog Roll
- ‘08 Pres Blog
- A Voice of Reason
- Alabama for McCain
- Ali A. Akbar
- ARRA News Service
- AZ-A-Matter-Of Fact
- But I am a Liberal!
- Campaignia
- Captain’s Quarters
- CNN Political Ticker
- Evangelicals for McCain
- Green Mountain Politics
- Hoosiers for McCain
- Hot Air
- Instapundit
- Iowa for McCain
- JohnMcCain.com
- Jon Martin’s Blog
- Libertas01
- McCain 2008 Blog
- McCain Blogette
- McCain Movement
- McCain on YouTube
- McCain OSM
- McCain States’ Blog
- MI for McCain
- Moderates for McCain
- MyMcCainBlog.com
- National Journal Blog
- NH 4 McCain
- NH for McCain
- NJ for McCain
- Partisan American
- PowerLine News
- Real Clear Politics
- Reality Bytes
- Reality Check
- SC for McCain
- Students for McCain
- The Caucus
- TX for McCain
Sunday, November 25, 2007
The New Future of this Blog
Just as a special gift to my non-existent readers:
Blogrolls for all of the 2008 candidates!
Second one is Hillary Clinton. (Tuesday)
In addition, gems from my attempt to write a business plan for a high-tech language learning company in Beijing and sell it to American investors as a play on the RMB.
Finally, strategy memos for Hillary and McCain.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Just so i can say i told you so, without ever having told you
So, the echo effect I was looking for was sort of there but it got a bit strange. It was not a person that got the bashing, it was MoveOn.org and it wasn't exactly McCain out in front of that. Then we had two days of Guliani bashing Democrats. What?
But here we are in October and suddenly there is news that September, the fourth straight month during which violence in Iraq has dropped, is the lowest month for violence in over a year. Will McCain make this his moment?
The theory is, that any candidate that can get out in front of these positive reports can gain the political capital from them. Its a gambit for sure, but the way to do it, is to viciously attack anyone who is not willing to be even more hawkish than the president*. Then get Petreus and Bush to help with triple tag team action. If good reports follow you not only claim the political capital, you multiply it.
(*hawkish on a technicality, in the sense that the president is actually in favor of a withdrawal and will commence at least a limited withdrawal in 2008. Nonetheless, you could ask all the candidates to commit to no withdrawal, or no surrender, depending on your preference, and attack them if they refuse.)
If there is such a thing as the right wing version of the anti-war activists, ie. the pro-honor activists, McCain can claim these supporters. They may even become as fanatical as the anti-war activists if you whip them up about the Dems allowing us to choose to lose. Then, as the strategy in Iraq is succesful, you get the moderates.
But here we are in October and suddenly there is news that September, the fourth straight month during which violence in Iraq has dropped, is the lowest month for violence in over a year. Will McCain make this his moment?
The theory is, that any candidate that can get out in front of these positive reports can gain the political capital from them. Its a gambit for sure, but the way to do it, is to viciously attack anyone who is not willing to be even more hawkish than the president*. Then get Petreus and Bush to help with triple tag team action. If good reports follow you not only claim the political capital, you multiply it.
(*hawkish on a technicality, in the sense that the president is actually in favor of a withdrawal and will commence at least a limited withdrawal in 2008. Nonetheless, you could ask all the candidates to commit to no withdrawal, or no surrender, depending on your preference, and attack them if they refuse.)
If there is such a thing as the right wing version of the anti-war activists, ie. the pro-honor activists, McCain can claim these supporters. They may even become as fanatical as the anti-war activists if you whip them up about the Dems allowing us to choose to lose. Then, as the strategy in Iraq is succesful, you get the moderates.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
This is going to blow your little mind up
The Pacification of the Country----------------
The campaign to pacify the country is kicking off tomorrow, Monday September 10th. And I mean the US, not Iraq. The plan to pacify Iraq was already implemented in January, when Rumsfeld was fired, Petreus promoted, and the existence of an insurgency was finally acknowledged. Some who had been calling for such a shift in strategy all along, began to question whether it was too late. The American public was already weary of the war, and the battle to write the narrative of how we got into this mess seemed won by the media. Would we win the war on the ground, but lose at home? In other words, there is only one way to win the war in Iraq, you have to pacify both countries, the US and Iraq.
John McCain- "I would rather lose a campaign than a war."
"And I believe that this strategy is winning. I know the conflict. I know war. I have seen war. I know how the military works. I know how the government works. I understand national security."
Why does Michael Chertoff give an interview about the Osama Bin Laden video, as if he was selling a book or a policy? Seems to me that the the administration intended to bring more attention to the Osama video. This is the real opening in the pacification of the country campaign.
This is the second time i've noticed coordination between Bush and McCain. The first time was in their supposed back and forth over the torture bill, which actually cast them both in a good light and kept terrorism center stage.
Media is looking for stories from three sources right now, (Cross your fingers for no more GOP sex scandals) . . Ring 1: News From Iraq Ring 2: Policy on Iraq Ring 3:The Nominations
Pro-Surge forces intend to take center stage at all three venues starting tomorrow. In succession Petreus will report that the surge is working. Bush will announce his policy. McCain will attack an opponent (Thompson or Romney.) This will all be supported by a slew of editorials, coordinated talking points with conservative news outlets, and paid media (I think but i can't remember where I saw that). Ensuring at least a triple echo of the initial Petreus report, but hopefully a pinball effect will kick in and points will get racked up in the echo chamber.
That would work like this. Petreus is seen as the credible authority, he makes a statement. Bush then sets his policy, this is the bate for anybody to criticize it. Anybody who takes the bate gets slammed by 'no surrender' McCain. And just when McCain runs out of ammo, Petreus will give us an 'update' on the situation on the ground, which just so happens to make the person who criticized the presidents policy feel like an idiot.
The hope is that this echo chamber will successfully set the terms of debate as far into 2008 as possible. Al Anbar will become a household name and pullout will officially be equated with surrender. Time will be bought for the counter-insurgency strategy, Bush will have hope that he won't be remembered for a horrible disaster, but McCain will still have one hell of a time knocking off Guliani, and an even worse time if he gets to the Hillary level. And 2008 Republicans need fear. Recession is to the Democrats what terrorist attack is to the Republicans.
The campaign to pacify the country is kicking off tomorrow, Monday September 10th. And I mean the US, not Iraq. The plan to pacify Iraq was already implemented in January, when Rumsfeld was fired, Petreus promoted, and the existence of an insurgency was finally acknowledged. Some who had been calling for such a shift in strategy all along, began to question whether it was too late. The American public was already weary of the war, and the battle to write the narrative of how we got into this mess seemed won by the media. Would we win the war on the ground, but lose at home? In other words, there is only one way to win the war in Iraq, you have to pacify both countries, the US and Iraq.
John McCain- "I would rather lose a campaign than a war."
"And I believe that this strategy is winning. I know the conflict. I know war. I have seen war. I know how the military works. I know how the government works. I understand national security."
Why does Michael Chertoff give an interview about the Osama Bin Laden video, as if he was selling a book or a policy? Seems to me that the the administration intended to bring more attention to the Osama video. This is the real opening in the pacification of the country campaign.
This is the second time i've noticed coordination between Bush and McCain. The first time was in their supposed back and forth over the torture bill, which actually cast them both in a good light and kept terrorism center stage.
Media is looking for stories from three sources right now, (Cross your fingers for no more GOP sex scandals) . . Ring 1: News From Iraq Ring 2: Policy on Iraq Ring 3:The Nominations
Pro-Surge forces intend to take center stage at all three venues starting tomorrow. In succession Petreus will report that the surge is working. Bush will announce his policy. McCain will attack an opponent (Thompson or Romney.) This will all be supported by a slew of editorials, coordinated talking points with conservative news outlets, and paid media (I think but i can't remember where I saw that). Ensuring at least a triple echo of the initial Petreus report, but hopefully a pinball effect will kick in and points will get racked up in the echo chamber.
That would work like this. Petreus is seen as the credible authority, he makes a statement. Bush then sets his policy, this is the bate for anybody to criticize it. Anybody who takes the bate gets slammed by 'no surrender' McCain. And just when McCain runs out of ammo, Petreus will give us an 'update' on the situation on the ground, which just so happens to make the person who criticized the presidents policy feel like an idiot.
The hope is that this echo chamber will successfully set the terms of debate as far into 2008 as possible. Al Anbar will become a household name and pullout will officially be equated with surrender. Time will be bought for the counter-insurgency strategy, Bush will have hope that he won't be remembered for a horrible disaster, but McCain will still have one hell of a time knocking off Guliani, and an even worse time if he gets to the Hillary level. And 2008 Republicans need fear. Recession is to the Democrats what terrorist attack is to the Republicans.
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