DEM.VP

Regarding the DEM.VP intrade markets, we can now take a look and see how they performed. Of interest: market efficiency, their prediction accuracy, and reaction to Biden's headfake (8/19).
Here are some graphs and commentary written in the language of gibber.


Clearly there was a reaction to Biden's headfake. His price had been surging and suddenly dropped for 2 days. Kaine and Bayh's prices both increased after Biden said he was 'not the guy' (What a Dbag!) It might be more significant that it didn't decrease more as it would indicate some traders knew Biden was the pick, or possibly just knew Biden is moronic enough to pointlessly deny something that would be announced in two days. It also may have been decreasing slowly due to market inefficiency. (Including some traders not getting word of Biden's statement.)


Here's a trade by trade graph starting hours before the announcement.
Interesting how it jumped to 90 and then fell back to 70 before climbing to where its at. Were some people just cashing in causing the price to drop? Did some traders know for sure but the speculators pushed the price back down? Did news reports give mixed signals?



Interestingly, unlike the other two candidates, Kaine's largest day of trading volume occurred on the 21st. Amid the swirl of speculation over the past week is was difficult to determine which new information mattered and I think I discounted some quote from Kaine on the 21st, but it was obviously a market mover.




Here we see a clear Volume trend, where the market started rather inefficient and the volume grew everyday until the selection was announced.


This is the last 48 hours of Bayh trading (ending at 3pm 8/23) ie. it gives insight into just what took place within that frenzied volume of trading shown in the final two days of the first graph. It wasn't all straight down. Specifically, something happened around 6pm on Friday that seems to have convinced a lot of people that Bayh was the pick. That topped out at 50 before the price basically nose-dived to 0. (When exactly did official word of the pick go out? Was it Friday evening as this graph would suggest? What time did news break of the Obama-Bayh yard sign?)

According to The Page, Obama, whoever he chose to tell, the four finalists, and whoever they choose to tell, knew about the selection as of 8/21. (But I will not apologize for calling him a Dbag.)

LMAO@Obama-Biden

There is a reason nobody took Biden's presidential campaign seriously in the first place. Biden is not appropriate for national television. His total inability to shut his mouth is a character flaw. His Jefferson Jackson dinner speech in Iowa was literally the worst speech I have ever heard in my entire life. (And I have attended English language Toastmasters meetings in Beijing). When he starts talking too much during Cspan coverage of congressional hearings, I can turn it off or skip forward 20 minutes, but there in Iowa I could do nothing but count his attempts to invoke an aura of weightiness by saying "ladies and gentlemen" over and over and over. Sure one could argue that Biden's policy stances contradict what Obama claims to stand for. Or that these policy stances are flawed. Or mention his plagiarism in 1988. But if I was Steve Schmidt or Rick Davis, I might just say nothing. Attacking Biden gives him an undeserved credibility, evidencing a concern that without the attacks people might not see through his rhetoric for what he really is. There need not be such concern with Biden. Just let him introduce himself to the American public in the way that he sees best fit. That will surely be off-putting enough for the majority of Americans.
Dems should be crying. They could have Clinton-Obama. Instead they have Obama-Biden. LMAO.


As for McCain, I'm assuming that both Rice and Petreus, for whatever reasons, are not actually choosable. I'm hoping for Pawlenty and if it's Romney I will be rather disappointed.

Ohio polls and price movement

A new PPP poll shows Obama and McCain tied in Ohio. The previous PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 8 points. Rasmussen will most likely be the next to release an Ohio poll. Their previous release had McCain ahead by 10 points and prior to that two months of McCain leading by 1. It seems possible that PPP set up Ohio to shift from lean Obama to lean McCain and Rasmussen might push it over the edge. In other words look for the Rasmussen report to move Ohio.Rep higher.

Week in Review 8/9-8/16

Examining the graphs from the past week, three battleground states showed significant movement for McCain between the 15th-16th (Friday-Saturday).

Poll releases seem to tell the story:
Sat. 8/16

Rocky Mtn News/CBS4

08/11 - 08/13

500 RV

41

44

McCain +3

Fri. 8/15
Rasmussen: Obama 48, McCain 49 McCain +1

Looking further back, it's apparent the CO price has been following the polls. Obama reached a high of 75 prior to the release of the first poll in which McCain lead on 7/22. From that point it has been a steady decline with the exception of a short uptick on 8/8 when the PPP poll showed Obama ahead by 4.
McCain now leads in the CO polls but trails on Intrade. (Small lead according to RCP, dead even according to pollster.com, slightly behind according to 538 which weights the Rocky Mnt News poll at .75) Are the markets pricing in the anticipated effects of the DNC convention?

As for Nevada and Florida, they both had recent poll releases that favored McCain. The date on 538 is 8/11. Polls tend to carry the dates they were conducted rather than released whereas the latter date is more useful for my purposes.

ANY

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Highlights of Saturday's Rasmussen Poll Release

"McCain is now trusted more than Obama on nine out of 14 electoral issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But perhaps the most interesting finding of this survey is that McCain has expanded his leads on nearly every issue he had previously had the advantage on, while Obama’s leads have diminished over the past two weeks."

"During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell to 39.2% while the number of self-identified Republicans stayed at 31.6%. LINK It was the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%."

"Television is the news source of choice for most Americans for information on the 2008 presidential campaign, with local stations having a slight edge over their cable competitors."

"In a separate survey last month, 49% of voters believed that most reporters are trying to help Democratic candidate Barack Obama win the presidency. Only 14% thought they are trying to help Republican John McCain win. Just one voter in four (24%) said most reporters are trying to be unbiased."

Special Note: Marc Ambinder has broadsided Dick Morris and come out strongly against Obama under performing amongst older white women and in favor of McCain under performing amongst white men.

The August 5th event

So what happened on August 5th that caused the market for every battleground state to spike for McCain? Surprisingly, the answer is not entirely obvious. All things considered, the best I can come up with is this: "McCain makes a last-minute purchase of $6 million in Olympics ad time, topping Obama’s $5 million buy." (From thepage)In addition, Rasmussen and Zogby released polls on 8/4 in which McCain lead.

Which of these is the real market driver is a significant question for determining just how political prediction markets are going to work. Are the prices driven by those with a deeper understanding of the process, or are they merely a lagging indicator of recent poll results?

中国加油！

I'll be rooting for the Chinese to pull out their hoped for domination of all medals in the Olympics. I'm not particularly eager to see the Chinese system of athlete recruitment and training succeed and I have over the past four years felt the occasional surge of nationalistic pride along the lines of 'god I hope we beat these bastards' but it would be best for the world if they win (the most medals). A Chinese win might go a long way towards defusing the national inferiority complex. Having proven the power of the Chinese on the world stage they may feel slightly less driven to do that in other realms. On the flip side, I hope a Chinese win fuels Western anxiety about China's rise and our ability to guide/contain it. Such anxiety could only be beneficial to the physical security of one living in Taiwan and the job opportunities of one looking to analyze Sino-US relations.

Week in Review

RCP poll avgs on 8/2
Obama 46.5
McCain 43.9

RCP poll avgs on 8/8
Obama 46.9
McCain 43.3

McCain Intrade


Obama Intrade


Ohio
Republicans:


Democrats:


The most significant event of the week happened on August 5th. Almost every battleground state price shows a sharp increase for McCain on the 5th followed by steady erosion of the increase over the rest of the week. New Mexico and Nevada, where the increase disappears entirely, and Indiana, where the increase is maintained, break the pattern. Michigan also had a Pro-McCain reaction on the 5th but lost that and more by the end of the week.

More "who is Obama" blather

I think Barack's flexibility on energy has helped him out in the polls already. Here's a few points you can take out of his poll numbers right now to get ahead of the game:

"His rapid rise benefited ironically from his ability to "transcend race," we have been told repeatedly. That's another way of saying that he seemed to offer Americans a way to reduce race to something that would not matter anymore. Americans want to believe that race doesn't matter and apparently we will only believe it if we hear a black person say it."
Clarence Page, Chicago Tribune

Contrast that with the Kurtz's Barack Obama's Lost Years in The Weekly Standard.

"Indeed, race functions for Obama as a kind of master-category, pervading and organizing a wide array of issues that many Americans may not think of as racial at all. Understanding Obama's thinking on race, for example, is a prerequisite to grasping his views on spending and taxation."

Status update: Obama still had a radical left-wing pastor who preached for 20 years and this has yet to be re-introduced as a general election issue.
Does Obama think white supremacy is the organizing principle of the USA? (As Wright does.)
Does Obama think 9/11 was an inside job? (As Wright does.)

Due Credit and Caution

Now that McCain has moved to 39 on intrade and Obama to 58, the millions of you who regularly read this blog and follow its suggestions have made tons of cash. Good job. Now be careful over the next two weeks. The current narrative --the race is ugly and the race is tied -- might yield to the realization that a tie goes to Obama. I assume it has been the changed poll numbers which have driven the market. If the changes in the polls stall out at even, people will realize that all Obama has to do is win one swing state and hold all of Kerry's states. The market will then shift back toward Obama even as the polls stay put. On the other hand, it goes without saying that if a state like Pennsylvania or Michigan looks to lean-McCain, the McCain upside is like 25. (But I don't see that happening.)

Super Ugly Obama Rumors

Advance Indiana, which previously posted a youtube clip of the Ludacris song about Obama, has recently posted two rumors which threaten to become major MSM driving scandals, or just powerful whisper/blogging campaigns. 1. Obama received illegal campaign contributions from Palestinians. 2.Obama's birth certificate is forged.


"Piecing together facts in the public domain, the investigative journalist was able to surmise that Sen. Obama's step father had adopted him and his name had been legally changed from Barack Hussein Obama to Barry Soetoro. When an adoption occurs, the child's birth certificate is re-issued with the name of the adoptive parent and the original birth certificate ceases to exist. Records of the adoption are sealed. The investigative reporting at Texas Darlin concludes this is the reason Obama's campaign is using a fake certificate of live birth to prove his natural born status. Indonesian records indicate that Barry Soetoro was an Indonesian citizen identified in his public school records as being a Muslim, the religion of his adopted father. It is unclear if and when Obama had his name legally changed back to Barack Hussein Obama, II."

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